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Comments On Gartner's Top Ten Disruptive Technologies
Gartner recently released a list of the Top Ten Disruptive Technologies for 2008 to 2012. This has been commented on in a number of blogs around the Web, but since it has some technologies related to Ubicomp, I figured I'd throw in my two cents worth.
Here is the list:
- Multicore and hybrid processors
- Virtualisation and fabric computing
- Social networks and social software
- Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
- Web mashups
- User Interface
- Ubiquitous computing
- Contextual computing
- Augmented reality
- Semantics
On Disruption
It seems like a worthy enough list of technologies to watch and which will have some impact in the near future. However, the first observation I have is that few of these seem immediately disruptive. Disruptive to who or what? Some of these have been around for some time under other names: multicore processors (parallel processors), virtualization (virtual computing), mesh computing (distributed processing). I took courses on these concepts many years ago (more than I care to reveal). They are just the latest in an ongoing evolution. Gartner sees these items from their list as threats to IT organizations, which will result in reduction or elimination of IT staffing and management jobs. To this I respond: I wish that part of my job would go away, but I will have to see it to believe it. A concept like virtualization just moves the focus somewhere else--it doesn't eliminate much.
Other items on the list like semantics and contextual computing operate too far under the radar to be distruptive. These are being discussed by providers and infrastructure people--the same people who championed things like XML and SOA. They ultimately provide great utility but don't experience a viral growth or disruptive singularity. Social networking is different in the aspect of being very much on the surface, but by definition it has the harmonious goal of connecting people in more and different ways. Social networking may in fact disrupt marketeers and advertisers, but even on social nets, the old rules of conversation still apply (even if we are just recently writing down some of the rules).
Mashups could be genuinely disruptive in some ways, since it shifts the architecture and the attention. As this grows as a business model, it raises questions such as:
- Who owns the information? What is the value of data feed vs. mashup?
- What are the revenue streams? It is better to be the "invisible" data provider or the easily cloned mashup?
- As Gartner questions: do they lend themselves to investment dollars?
If I were to pick one item from the list as most potentially disruptive, I would pick augmented reality. First, the name itself implies you are changing reality in some way which makes it a candidate for disruption. More importantly, If or when display and other sensory I/O technology becomes seamless and unobtrusive enough, I believe the level of fantasy, escapism, and withdrawal possible could have a huge impact on relationships and socialization, and not all good. I am still trying to figure out the appeal of FurryMUCK and yiff. The suspension of belief and judgement possible with good 3D Virtual Reality will make Grand Theft Auto look seem like Ms. Pacman.
Ubicomp
In addition to ubiquitous computing (ubicomp) being listed explicitly in the 10 technologies, other items on the list also figure into ubicomp, like User Interface (non-traditional interfaces), contextual computing (your computing environment changing on your location/context) and to some degree, cloud computing (being surrounded by a distributed cloud of computers). For a description of ubicomp, see my post What Is Ubiquitous Computing?, and also What Can We Do Differently With Ubicomp?
According to the Gartner article:
"...within the next five years, information will be presented via new user interfaces such as organic light-emitting displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D imaging and smart fabric."
I think this is a safe bet--display and other interface technologies have consistently driven change in computers, home entertainment and mobile phone applications. As far as ubicomp, I will likely be blogging specifically on this in the near future. For a taste, see my post on Human-Computer Interfaces In The Iron Man Movie. In general one of the recurring themes of ubicomp is to move displays and interfaces away from the traditional desktop display (or even laptop display) and blend them into the environment. As OLED displays and digital paper become cheap and easy to mass produce, they will be applied to the surfaces of all kinds of objects. This will not only open up possibilities for information to be displayed in more convenient places (such as the kitchen, mirrors) but also for applications for nontraditional objects (such as the fridge) to display information and interact with us. And while I have a hard time imagining an actual, working holographic display, when it does happen it can't help but change the way we display and visually process information. And form-factor wise, it is as likely to appear on your coffee table as your desktop.
Relative to ubicomp, contextual computing and cloud computing will serve to enable interaction of the local environment with the user, as well as provide mobility of the user's profiles and applications as she moves from location to location. More ubiquitous and pervasive computers in the environment, as well as deeper and more comprehensive interaction with users, is at the heart of the ubicomp movement.
rk
